Market valuation · updated every 6 hours

Is the stock market cheap or expensive? One indicator gets you close.

The Buffett Indicator (market cap ÷ GDP) is the ratio Warren Buffett called “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” This page tracks it — and how confident regular investors are feeling — so you start with context, not a guess.

Open an account — about 10 minutes See the long view

Featured brokers regulated in the EU & UK — FCA · EFSA · CySEC · AFM · CBI. Market data from FRED & CNN.

Buffett Indicator · today (estimated) ~262.6% Expensive Last official quarter (Q2 2026, Fed Z.1): 255.1% 1947–2026 · see the full chart → Fear & Greed43/100 · Fear US market vs GDP$83.1T / $32.6T Data as of 5 Oct 2026, 16:44 CEST

The long view

The Buffett Indicator since 1947 — 79 years

Under 90% the market has historically been cheap — a good decade to keep buying. 90–140% is fair to rich. Over 140% it has been expensive — returns tend to be lower over the following years. This is a valuation gauge, not a timing tool. Pick a period, then tap or drag across the line to read any quarter.

Tap or drag across the chart to read any quarter · line colour follows the valuation zone

Source: FRED · US corporate equities at market value (Fed Z.1) ÷ US GDP · quarterly, 1947–2026 · updated 5 Oct 2026, 16:44 CEST. The dashed tail brings the line to today: the last official quarter (Q2 2026) scaled by the S&P 500's move since 30 Jun 2026 — see the formula below. Each quarter shows what the ratio does not predict: next week or next year.

Methodology

The formula — measured dollars, updated daily

Buffett Indicator = US corporate equities (market value) ÷ US nominal GDP × 100

Official (Q2 2026) = $83.1T ÷ $32.6T × 100 = 255.1%

Today (2 Oct 2026) = 255.1% × S&P 500 move since 30 Jun 2026 (+3.0%) = ~262.6%

Implied market value today ≈ $85.5T vs $32.6T GDP

Why this is the more accurate version. Our numerator is the Federal Reserve's own measurement of what all US corporate equities are worth in dollars (the Z.1 Financial Accounts, series NCBEILQ027S) — not a stock index. Most popular trackers divide the Wilshire 5000 index level (points, not dollars) by GDP, which is a scaled proxy of listed stocks only. The two methods give different levels — today roughly ~230% on the Wilshire version vs ~262.6% here — but they agree on what matters: which valuation zone the market is in.

Why it still reaches today. The Fed publishes quarterly, months in arrears — official data currently ends Q2 2026. Rather than let the line stop there, we scale that last measured quarter by the S&P 500's daily move since the quarter closed. That's the dashed tail and the ~ in front of today's number. When the next Z.1 release lands, the estimate is replaced by the measured figure.

How to use it. Compare today's reading to the bands, not to yesterday's. At ~262.6%, the market is far above the 140% line — historically that has meant lower average returns over the following decade, not a crash next month. Use it to set expectations and to keep contributions regular — not to time entries and exits.

Seen the data? Act on it

Open an account in about 10 minutes

At ~262.6% the market is expensive by history — that's an argument for starting small and regular, not for waiting on a crash that may never come. Below: four brokers ranked for low fees, an easy first account, and whether £50 a month is enough to begin.

Our pick for beginners

Lightyear Your first account, without the noise Low fees, fractional shares, and accounts in EUR and GBP. £50 a month is a real start. London and Tallinn-based broker built explicitly for new European investors. It offers commission-free trading on thousands of US and EU stocks and ETFs, fractional shares from around €1, and a straightforward app that skips the wall-of-numbers approach. Funds are held with a regulated custodian, and it is covered by investor protection in the EU and UK. Fee 0% commission on most stock trades Best for First portfolio Regulated by EFSA (EU) · FCA (UK) Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

Trading 212 Commission-free, EU and UK Stocks and ETFs with fractional shares, plus a practice account so you can try it first. One of the most popular retail brokers in Europe and the UK, authorized and regulated by the FCA. Its model is simple: zero-commission trading on US and EU stocks and ETFs, fractional shares, and a highly rated mobile app that supports everything from a first £10 investment to ISA accounts. The in-app practice mode is a genuinely good way to learn without risking anything. Fee 0% commission Best for Trying before you commit Regulated by FCA (UK) · CySEC (EU) Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

DEGIRO The budget workhorse A huge range of markets with transparent, low fees — a European favourite. A Dutch broker (part of the publicly listed flatexDEGIRO group) and one of Europe's largest by trading volumes. DEGIRO's edge is breadth: access to roughly 50 exchanges across 30 countries in about 6,000 securities, at some of the lowest per-trade fees in Europe. It is regulated by the Dutch AFM/De Nederlandsche Bank, though without the classic zero-commission app polish. Fee From €1 per trade Best for Multi-country access Regulated by AFM & DNB (NL) Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

Interactive Brokers For when you outgrow the basics Global markets and serious tools. Overkill for day one, useful by year two. A Nasdaq-listed global broker and one of the largest in the world, with access to markets in over 150 countries. EU clients are served through its Dublin entity under European regulation. Its research platform, low margin rates and institutional-grade order routing are best-in-class — and genuinely more than a beginner needs, which is why it suits investors who have already learned the ropes. Fee Low tiers + per-share Best for Serious investors Regulated by Central Bank of Ireland Free to open · start with small amounts · leave any time Open account

Not sure where to start? Any of the first three gets you going. Small and consistent beats big and occasional.

Fear & Greed Index

43/100 · Fear

43/100

Fear

New here? Start like this

Three steps, ten minutes

Understand the mood

Check the Buffett Indicator chart and the Fear & Greed gauges on this page. They tell you if stocks are historically cheap or expensive — so you're not guessing.

Open a brokerage account

You don't need a fortune or even experience. European brokers like Lightyear, Trading 212 and DEGIRO let you open an account in minutes and start with tiny amounts.

Invest a little, on repeat

The boring part is the secret: small, regular, long-term investing into a diversified fund. The earlier you start, the more compounding does the work. Use the F.I.R.E. calculator below.

Your plan

F.I.R.E. calculator: when are you free?

Financial Independence, Retire Early. Plug in your numbers — real ones if you have them, estimates if not — and see the maths and the projection. Choose how you want to look at it.

When will I be free? Coast FIRE — am I there? Set the date

Your age Currency Already invested (today) Monthly income (after tax) Monthly contribution — whatever you'd miss least Annual return (real, after inflation) 7.0% Yearly spending outside investing Retirement age you're coasting to Freedom target age

Rough rules: ~7% is the long-run real return of global stocks, ~4% the classic safe withdrawal rate. Past performance is not a prediction.

Savings rate—

F.I.R.E. number—

Time to freedom—

Freedom age—

Portfolio F.I.R.E. target Today

You're 0% of the way there on day one.

The plan only works once it starts. Pick a broker and set up your monthly amount →

Illustration only. Results are estimates based on your inputs and historical assumptions. Investment returns vary and may be negative; your actual results will differ. This is not financial advice — see the full disclosure at the bottom of the page.

Daily Market Summary

Neutral

Generated 5 Oct 2026

Valuations Stay Elevated While Investor Mood Leans Fearful

The daily Buffett Indicator estimate sits at 262.6%, above the last official quarterly reading of 255.1%, keeping overall market valuations in expensive territory. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index reads about 43 out of 100, placing sentiment in fear territory.

The combination is familiar: rich prices alongside a cautious mood, with investors uneasy even as valuations remain stretched by historical standards. For someone investing small amounts on a regular schedule, valuations have historically said little about the next year, while steady contributions have mattered far more than the day you bought.

Read the full market news

More market news: Reuters · Bloomberg · Yahoo Finance · MarketWatch

Not financial advice. This AI-generated summary is informational only — it is not advice, a recommendation, or a forecast. See the full disclosure at the bottom of this page.

Ready when you are

Pick a broker and start small

Same shortlist as above. Open an account when the chart has given you enough context — then keep contributions boring and regular.

Our pick for beginners

Any of the first three is a fine place to begin. Consistency beats the perfect broker.

Frequently Asked Questions

I'm new to investing — where do I even start?

Three steps, no shortcuts: (1) look at the Buffett Indicator and Fear & Greed Index above so you understand the current mood; (2) open a brokerage account with a beginner-friendly European broker — most are free, take minutes, and accept small amounts; (3) invest a small, regular amount into a diversified global ETF and keep doing it. Time in the market beats timing the market — that is the whole secret.

What is the Buffett Indicator?

The Buffett Indicator — also called the market cap to GDP ratio — compares the total value of all publicly traded US stocks to US gross domestic product (GDP). Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."

How is the market cap to GDP ratio calculated?

It is total US stock market value divided by US nominal GDP, expressed as a percentage. This site uses the market value of US corporate equities from the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts (FRED series NCBEILQ027S, in US dollars) divided by quarterly US nominal GDP. Because both inputs are real dollars on the same quarterly basis, no adjustment is needed. Between quarterly releases we bring the reading up to today by scaling the last official quarter by the S&P 500's daily move since that quarter ended — that is the dashed tail on the chart. Historically the ratio averages around 80–100%, so readings well above 100% suggest the market is expensive relative to the economy.

What did Warren Buffett say about it?

In the 2001 Fortune article The Warren Buffett Way to Pick Stocks, Buffett said market value to GDP was "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment," noting that when it fell well below 70% it was attractive, and warned when it climbed too far above 100%.

How does the Fear & Greed Index work?

CNN's Fear & Greed Index scores market sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed) using seven signals: stock price momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe haven demand.

What are the limitations of these indicators?

Both are rough, backward-looking gauges, not buy or sell signals. GDP is reported quarterly and revised, so the ratio moves slowly. Fear & Greed is based on momentum. Neither accounts for interest rates, earnings, or future growth, and unusually high market valuations have persisted for years. This site is for information only and is not financial advice.

Start with £50 this month.

It takes about ten minutes. Small, regular, boring — that's the whole trick.

Pick a broker →

Important legal and risk disclosure

Not financial advice

Nothing on this site constitutes investment, legal, tax, or financial advice; nor is it a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, asset, or product. The content is provided for general information and educational purposes only. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and their consequences.

Affiliate disclosure

Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you click one and open an account or make a purchase, we may receive a commission at no additional cost to you. This does not influence our content, which is provided independently. We do not accept payment for positive coverage. Please verify fees, terms, and availability with the provider directly.

Data & accuracy

Figures are compiled from third-party sources (FRED, CNN Fear & Greed) and may be delayed, revised, or incomplete. GDP is reported quarterly and frequently revised. Indicators are simplified proxies and can be calculated differently by other providers. Verify any figure before relying on it.

Risk warning

The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If you are unsure, consult an authorised financial adviser. Products referenced may not be available or regulated in your jurisdiction.